The Art Of Outright Tennis Betting_ Lesson 5 - The Surface

The use of different surfaces at different ATP Tour events is one of the greatest advantages of tennis in terms of both betting and viewing.


In general, 65 events are divided between clay, clay, and hard courts. The majority (37) are played on the faster, harder surfaces with clay (21) the next most widely used and the grass court season (6) now limited to a handful of events in June/July.


This often highlights differences in skill, performance, and sometimes mismatches between the players. For example, if a natural clay-courter plays an opponent considered as a 'hard-court player' on a slow dirt surface then we all know who is going to win. However, put the same players on a quicker, bouncier surface and it's the hard court performer who comes out on top.


Such situations we can easily exploit in match betting situations but we can also utiliset this phenomenon when we consider outright tournament betting.


Bookmakers often give undue credit to (a) well ranked players (b) recent tour winners or (c) players generally in good form. The point is, that doesn't always take into consideration the surface which is being used ... so you're in great form on clay but we're playing on grass this week!


These situations can be identified by savvy tennis traders. They will be able to identify players who aren’t suitable for the surface and locate those who can be expected significantly to improve their performance (due to the type of court being used).


Example: Lleyton Hewitt (Halle 2010) WON 14/1


Hewitt's 537:188 career record shows a 74% win rate on all surfaces. Focusing solely on grass, his 98/23 record shows Hewitt winning 81% of his matches. This was Hewitt's most preferred surface for the Gerry Weber German event.  https://healingwavetherapies.com/the-better-poker-player/ He'd also played in the final of six grass court tournaments prior to this event ... and won all six. In moderate form coming into the grass court season, a return to the 'green stuff' saw him land a 7th title on the surface at what was a hugely inflated price.


Don't forget to credit a player for their form on the court surface and not for the success they have had on other courts. Certainly players can 'carry over' their form from one to another but generally speaking, even amongst the very top performers, you'll find significant differences in ability (and so opportunities to exploit).